IoT Analytics examines the future growth potential of cloud computing hyperscalers, also known as public cloud providers. They anticipate this market expanding from $157 billion in 2022 to $597 billion in five years, resulting in a total addressable market (TAM) of between $0.6 trillion and $10 trillion. The wide range allows for either an aggressive or conservative growth pattern, as well as something in between (for more information, see the article). These predictions are based on a period of 10 to 20 years.
These figures only cover the hyperscaler market. They lack many of the necessary add-ons and people services for cloud solutions to truly function. Hyperscalers are likely to expand roughly at the same rate as they are now if all of that is taken into account.
The extent to which this report looked into the future is what most interests me. Because I am well aware that technology tends to move in many random directions and at many random speeds due to the erratic nature of how we consume technology and the shifting priorities surrounding new and emerging concepts, I rarely make those leaps.
The fact that cloud computing is the foundation of future emerging technology is true of the market for cloud computing, particularly hyperscalers. For instance, the hyperscalers platform, on which artificial intelligence runs, expands with it. Devops, cloud-native development, and anything else you can think of are the same. Hyperscalers power them. As a result, hyperscalers will continue to be a hot topic and continue to expand regardless of changes in public interest in emerging technologies.
Naturally, the pragmatic part of me knows that markets eventually run out of room for growth. Consider, for instance, outdated technology. Note: I’m not criticizing a specific platform to avoid receiving hate mail from those who have made a career out of it.) Although legacy technologies are still prevalent and an essential component of the computing infrastructure of most businesses, they no longer rank highly among the methods for modernizing enterprise IT.
The barrier to entry is what keeps the hyperscaler space growing consistently. To build a public cloud provider that is competitive, scalable, and has the necessary points of presence, you would need billions of dollars in capital. Additionally, you would probably miss the market because becoming competitive would take so long. In order to concentrate on other areas where they had a better chance of success, many larger players left the public cloud space years ago. In a market that isn’t all that complicated, a few strong players can grow, focusing marketing and development efforts on growth and better protecting the market.
Having said that, we are seeing an increase in alternative public cloud providers that target specific niche services like cheap cloud storage, industry-specific cloud services, and clouds that are unique to nations and cultures. Although they won’t control the majority of the market anytime soon, they will have an impact on the future. As a result, we might go from having a lot of hyperscalers 12 years ago to just a few today and back to having a lot in a few years. In fact, we will soon use the names of these various categories to describe these hyperscalers.
Dependence, on the other hand, will be the primary driver of expansion. Hyperscalers are used by the majority of cutting-edge technologies, as previously stated. AI, serverless, containers, blockchain, and even edge computing are all expanding rapidly, and all of them require a hyperscaler as their hosting platform (you have to be on the edge of something). The majority of the technology that we create or reinvent in the future will continue to be driven by growth and will rely on public cloud providers.
Therefore, the growth and dependencies will continue regardless of the market’s direction, even if hyperscalers begin to resemble older technologies. Although public clouds are the engines that propel growth and innovation, the hyperscaler market may become more complex and fragmented.
Will it eventually stop growing? There are two ideas to think about, in my opinion: First, the idea of cloud computing. Second, the technology’s actual value.
Since cloud computing is becoming so widespread, it probably will become computing itself. The term loses its meaning and becomes ingrained if cloud-based consumption models are primarily utilized. In fact, in a 2009 book I wrote, I called for this. This has been requested by others as well, but nothing has been done. My guess is that the idea of cloud computing will stop growing when it does, but the technology will continue to be useful. The end of a popular phrase.
The most crucial component, utility, continues. In the end, cloud computing is a much better way to use technology services. It was never a good idea to run our own data centers and always own hardware and software. Too much capital investment and risk, too much electricity that makes carbon, and most businesses’ inability to scale and change at the “speed of need.”
In light of this, I believe that IoT Analytics’ base scenario of $2 trillion TAM will be simple to achieve.